- Home
- Investing
- Stocks
The "Trump always chickens out" trade faces its severest test, with the fate of an ancient culture and crude oil prices at stake.
By
David Dittman
published
7 April 2026
in News
When you purchase through links on our site, we may earn an affiliate commission. Here’s how it works.
- Copy link
- X
Profit and prosper with the best of Kiplinger's advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and much more. Delivered daily. Enter your email in the box and click Sign Me Up.
Contact me with news and offers from other Future brands Receive email from us on behalf of our trusted partners or sponsors By submitting your information you agree to the Terms & Conditions and Privacy Policy and are aged 16 or over.You are now subscribed
Your newsletter sign-up was successful
Want to add more newsletters?
Delivered daily
Kiplinger Today
Profit and prosper with the best of Kiplinger's advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and much more delivered daily. Smart money moves start here.
Signup +
Sent five days a week
Kiplinger A Step Ahead
Get practical help to make better financial decisions in your everyday life, from spending to savings on top deals.
Signup +
Delivered daily
Kiplinger Closing Bell
Get today's biggest financial and investing headlines delivered to your inbox every day the U.S. stock market is open.
Signup +
Sent twice a week
Kiplinger Adviser Intel
Financial pros across the country share best practices and fresh tactics to preserve and grow your wealth.
Signup +
Delivered weekly
Kiplinger Tax Tips
Trim your federal and state tax bills with practical tax-planning and tax-cutting strategies.
Signup +
Sent twice a week
Kiplinger Retirement Tips
Your twice-a-week guide to planning and enjoying a financially secure and richly rewarding retirement
Signup +
Sent bimonthly.
Kiplinger Adviser Angle
Insights for advisers, wealth managers and other financial professionals.
Signup +
Sent twice a week
Kiplinger Investing Weekly
Your twice-a-week roundup of promising stocks, funds, companies and industries you should consider, ones you should avoid, and why.
Signup +
Sent weekly for six weeks
Kiplinger Invest for Retirement
Your step-by-step six-part series on how to invest for retirement, from devising a successful strategy to exactly which investments to choose.
Signup + An account already exists for this email address, please log in. Subscribe to our newsletter
President Donald Trump has warned that "a whole civilization will die" if Iran does not accept his terms to end the war in the Middle East. All three main U.S. stock indexes gapped into the red at the opening bell on Tuesday, but trended higher before closing mixed as a now-familiar rhythm of "oil up, stocks down" appears to be reaching a crescendo.
According to The New York Times, Iran told Pakistan it will no longer negotiate a ceasefire directly with the U.S. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reports the Islamic Revolutionary Guard "is threatening escalating attacks on Middle East oil-and-gas infrastructure" ahead of the president's 8 pm Eastern Standard Time deadline. Trump has threatened to bomb Iran's electric power and transportation infrastructure if there's no deal.
The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was up as much as 4.6% to $117.63, but ended the session lower by 0.1% at $112.27 per barrel. WTI is up 67% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, trading as high as $119.48 on March 9. WTI hit an all-time high of $147.27 on July 11, 2008, and reached $123.70 on March 8, 2022, amid Russia's initial invasion of Ukraine.
From just $107.88 $24.99 for Kiplinger Personal Finance
Become a smarter, better informed investor. Subscribe from just $107.88 $24.99, plus get up to 4 Special Issues
CLICK FOR FREE ISSUE
Sign up for Kiplinger’s Free Newsletters
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail.
Profit and prosper with the best of expert advice - straight to your e-mail.
Sign up"A temporary de-escalation remains possible," BCA Research Chief Strategist Felix Vezina-Poirier writes, "with talk of a 45-day ceasefire and evidence that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has picked up."
The strategist says that scenario is unsustainable: "A framework in which Iran keeps its nuclear program while retaining leverage over access through Hormuz is not one the U.S., Israel or Gulf allies would accept on a lasting basis."
Looking for more timely stock market news to help gauge the health of your portfolio? Sign up for Closing Bell, our free newsletter that's delivered straight to your inbox at the close of each trading day.
As Vezina-Poirier notes, talk between the warring parties remains heated, and markets are moving from headline to headline about specific attacks and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, still the "swing factor for the global economy over the next few weeks."
At the closing bell, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average had declined by 0.2% to 46,584. But the broad-based S&P 500 was up 0.1% at 6,616, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had added 0.1% to 22,017.
UnitedHealth gets a booster shot
UnitedHealth Group (UNH, +9.4%) was the top-performing Dow Jones stock on Tuesday after the federal government announced a bigger-than-expected increase in payments to insurers for 2027.
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services said after the closing bell on Monday that payments under Medicare Advantage and Part D will rise by 2.48% next year, much better than the 0.09% increase proposed in January.
Track all markets on TradingViewUnitedHealth, with about 45 million covered, is the largest health insurer in the U.S. UNH stock was down more than 14% year to date through the closing bell on Monday.
"We do not believe a Medicare rate increase of 2.5% is so awesome in a vacuum," Mizuho Securities analyst Jared Holz observes, "but it is certainly better than the government’s initial rate decision."
Is AAPL stock on sale yet?
Apple (AAPL, -2.1%) is having a tough time getting its foldable iPhone to work, and the Magnificent 7 stock tumbled on a report that "engineering hurdles" could delay shipments of the new device.
According to Nikkei Asia, May and June will be critical months as Apple works to resolve the issues in time to meet its delivery schedule. AAPL traded as low as $245.70, down more than 5% from its closing price on Monday and almost 15% from its December 3 52-week high of $288.62.
Track all markets on TradingViewApple remains the biggest Warren Buffett stock, at about 23% of the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B, +0.3%) equity portfolio as of December 31.
Buffett, still the chairman of the Berkshire board and a resource for new CEO Greg Abel, said last Tuesday on CNBC that he's "very happy to have it be our largest holding." Explaining Berkshire's recent sale of a portion of its AAPL stake, Buffett added that he "was not happy to have it be as large as almost everything else combined."
At the same time, the Oracle of Omaha said he'd buy "a lot of" Apple stock "but not in this market." AAPL closed at $253.79 last Tuesday, and the iPhone maker is down just 0.1% over the last four trading sessions.
Related content
- March CPI Report: Iran War Is Expected to Boost Inflation
- The Best Aerospace and Defense ETFs to Buy
- The Best Vanguard Bond Funds to Buy
David DittmanInvesting EditorDavid Dittman is the former managing editor and chief investment strategist of Utility Forecaster, which was named one of "10 investment newsletters to read besides Buffett's" in 2015. A graduate of the University of California, San Diego, and the Villanova University School of Law, and a former stockbroker, David has been working in financial media for more than 20 years.