The July Fed meeting kicks off this Tuesday, July 28, and concludes on Wednesday, July 29, with the central bank's latest policy decision.
Oil prices have been volatile recently amid on-again, off-again fighting between the U.S. and Iran. But while crude futures are lower to start Fed week, they're up roughly 20% for July, which is likely to keep headline inflation readings hot in the near term.
This has Wall Street tuned into what Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and the rest of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decide for interest rates this time around.
The post-meeting press conference will be a lively one, too, as Warsh gives updates on the changes he's making at the central bank.
The Kiplinger team is reporting live on the July Fed meeting, bringing you the news and expert analysis of what it could mean for the economy and your money. Scroll for the latest updates.
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Get notified of updates 2026-07-27T20:27:08.756ZDow, S&P 500 close higher as oil prices decline
Stocks closed mixed Monday as market participants weighed falling oil prices against an extended sell-off in chipmakers.
The front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract was down 8.1% to $82.04 per barrel. The 2-year Treasury yield declined by nine basis points to 4.322%.
Both are still much higher than they were before the war between the U.S. and Iran started on February 28. But the immediate reaction to the suspension of attacks in the U.S.-Iran war "implies further equity upside when the conflict is fully over," according to Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates.
At the closing bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.5% to 52,209, and the broad-based S&P 500 had inched up 0.02% to 7,413 But the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 0.2% to 24,932.
Read more: Markets Weigh Peace Hope Against AI Fear: Stock Market Today
2026-07-27T20:09:56.467ZThere's a range of possible outcomes for the July Fed meeting, says Johnson Investment Counsel's chief economist
The July Fed meeting could have several potential outcomes, says Brandon Zureick, chief economist and senior managing director at Johnson Investment Counsel.
The central bank made clear following its June meeting that it remains focused on price stability. And while the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was much softer than expected, Zureick notes, "geopolitical tensions have flared once again, reviving concerns that higher energy prices could renew upward inflation pressure."
But the FOMC will not see any July inflation data before this week's meeting, so the chief economist expects the Fed to keep interest rates at their current range of 3.5% to 3.75%. "However, policymakers are also likely to emphasize that they remain prepared to raise rates if subsequent inflation reports surprise meaningfully to the upside," he adds.
And with no Summary of Economic Projections released this time around, meaning market participants will not see any new economic forecasts or interest-rate projections from committee members, Wall Street will watch Chair Warsh's post-meeting press conference "closely for any clues about the Fed’s desired path for monetary policy," says Zureick.
- Karee Venema
2026-07-27T19:40:55.186ZHow well do you know the Fed?
Fed meetings have become key events as central bank officials try to balance high inflation and labor market hiccups against the White House's desire for lower interest rates.
But how well do you know the Fed?
With the next Fed meeting on deck, we decided to test your basic knowledge of the Federal Reserve with a quick quiz.
Master Your Fed Knowledge: Take Our Quick Federal Reserve Quiz
2026-07-27T19:11:39.190ZHow higher inflation — and interest rates — will impact Big Tech
Oil prices and their impact on inflation are just one uncertainty keeping Wall Street wondering what the Fed will do with interest rates. But there are others, says Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, including President Donald Trump's recently announced tariffs, which will impose 10% to 25% levies on a variety of goods from major trading partners.
And this has major implications for Big Tech, which is ramping up capital expenditures to support artificial intelligence (AI) initiatives. Until recently, many of the biggest companies have been financing this spending boom through free cash flow, meaning higher interest rates weren't really an issue.
But now, says Schutte, several of these free-cash-flow-positive firms have tapped capital markets — both debt and equity — to fund their spending. He points to Alphabet (GOOGL), which said last week that it has increased its full-year capex budget to $205 billion at the high end and posted its first-ever quarter of negative free cash flow. It also announced an $80 billion stock sale in June to raise cash.
"We believe this marks an important shift," explains Schutte. "These companies, and the AI build-out more broadly, now increasingly rely on external capital to fund ever-growing investments, making them more economically sensitive as higher interest rates increase the cost of capital. The rising expense also raises questions about whether companies deploying AI will realize benefits quickly enough to justify continued spending."
Schutte does not expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates this week. He wonders, though, if the central bank will move to lift the federal funds rate sooner rather than later to ensure that higher inflation, which has been running above target for several years now and is unlikely to recede soon given mounting price pressures, does not become embedded in the economy. And this could have a major impact on Big Tech.
- Karee Venema
2026-07-27T18:26:41.441ZWho gets to vote at the July Fed meeting?
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has 12 total members, eight permanent and four who rotate each year.
The eight permanent voting committee members include the Fed chair and vice chair, the five Fed governors and the president of the New York Fed.
Four regional Fed presidents are rotated in each calendar year.
The 2026 FOMC voting committee consists of:
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh
- Vice Chair Philip Jefferson
- Fed Governor Michael Barr
- Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
- Fed Governor Lisa Cook
- Fed Governor Jerome Powell
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller
- New York Fed President John Williams
- Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack
- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari
- Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan
- Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson
In 2027, the presidents from Chicago, Richmond, Atlanta and San Francisco will rotate in as FOMC voting members, according to the Federal Reserve.
- Karee Venema
2026-07-27T17:31:36.526ZThe July Fed meeting is a "live" one
With inflation risks elevated amid geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, Wall Street isn't sure what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates this time around.
The odds of a rate hike have been climbing recently. According to CME Group FedWatch, futures traders are now pricing in a 36% chance of a quarter-percentage-point increase to the federal funds rate on Wednesday — up from 16% one week ago.
And given Chair Warsh's "clear hawkish bias," this makes the July Fed meeting a "live" one, says Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.
In addition to the "will they or won't they" narrative on interest rates, markets are also contending with the additional "challenge of working out the potential path forward for policy from here, given [Warsh's] antipathy towards forward guidance," Rodda adds.
- Karee Venema
2026-07-27T17:01:23.166ZWho is Kevin Warsh?
The July Fed meeting will mark Kevin Warsh's second as head of the Federal Reserve. But who is Kevin Warsh?
Warsh previously served on the Federal Reserve Board from February 2006 through March 2011. He was Fed Chair Ben Bernanke's right-hand man during the 2008-09 global financial crisis and was his primary liaison to Wall Street, which earned him credibility he still retains.
Before his time at the Federal Reserve, Warsh was special assistant to the president for economic policy and executive secretary of the White House National Economic Council from 2002 through 2006, during the George W. Bush administration. From 1995 to 2002, Warsh worked for Morgan Stanley.
Leading up to his May 2026 confirmation as Fed chair, Warsh was a visiting fellow in economics at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, a lecturer at the Stanford Graduate School of Business and a member of the Panel of Economic Advisers of the Congressional Budget Office.
He is widely viewed as a "hawk" on monetary policy who generally favors higher interest rates rather than the risk of inflation.
At the same time, Warsh, who was said to be a candidate for Treasury secretary before Trump picked Scott Bessent, was on the short list because he has a great relationship with the president.
Warsh said in mid-2025 that "the independent operations in the conduct of monetary policy is essential," adding "that doesn't mean the Fed is independent in everything else it does."
Though he consistently took the hawkish line on inflation during his time inside the central bank, Warsh has more recently advocated for lower interest rates.
Read more: The New Fed Chair Was Announced: What You Need to Know
- David Dittman
David Dittman
Investing Editor
David Dittman is the former managing editor and chief investment strategist of Utility Forecaster and the former editorial director of Investing Daily, Charles Street Research, and Weiss Ratings. A former stockbroker, David has been working in financial media for more than 20 years.
2026-07-27T16:35:54.047ZOil prices are lower Monday as U.S. and Iran pause fighting
Oil prices are starting Fed week on a negative note, with front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures down 6.5% at $83.50 per barrel.
This comes after a Reuters report indicated that Iran has agreed to pause strikes in the region as long as Washington agrees to do the same.
But "the situation remains far from resolved," says Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com. "Shipping risks through the Strait of Hormuz and continued disruption in the Red Sea mean energy markets remain vulnerable to fresh headlines, and any setback in negotiations could quickly send crude prices higher once again."
- Karee Venema
2026-07-27T16:21:00.210ZFed meeting schedule for 2026
The next Fed meeting, which runs from July 28 through July 29, marks the fifth gathering of 2026.
"The committee meets eight times a year, or about once every six weeks," writes Kiplinger contributor Dan Burrows in his feature, "When Is the Next Fed Meeting?".
The Federal Open Market Committee "is required to meet at least four times a year and may convene additional meetings if necessary," Burrows adds, noting that "the convention of meeting eight times per year dates back to the market stresses of 1981."
Fed meetings last two days and wrap up with the release of a policy decision at 2 pm Eastern Standard Time. This is typically followed by the Fed chair's press conference at 2:30 pm, though this could change under Warsh's leadership.
Here is the full remaining Fed meeting schedule for 2026:
- July 28 to 29
- September 15 to 16
- October 27 to 28
- December 8 to 9
- Karee Venema
2026-07-27T16:13:35.686ZThe stock market trades mixed to start Fed week
Stocks are mixed at midday Monday as market participants weigh falling oil prices and a continued sell-off in semiconductor stocks.
At last check, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.3% at 52,099, boosted by strength in mega caps Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL).
But the broader S&P 500 is down 0.04% at 7,408 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is off 0.2% at 24,924, with heavy losses for Micron Technology (MU) and SanDisk (SNDK) dragging on the indexes.
Over in the bond market, the yield on the 2-year Treasury yield is off 1.5 basis points at 4.316% and the 10-year Treasury yield is 3.2 basis points lower at 4.647%, though both remain near their highest points since early 2025.
- Karee Venema
Karee Venema Social Links Navigation Senior Investing Editor, Kiplinger.comWith over a decade of experience writing about the stock market, Karee Venema is the senior investing editor at Kiplinger.com. She joined the publication in April 2021, and oversees a wide range of investing coverage, including content focused on equities, fixed income, mutual funds, ETFs, macroeconomics and more.